Commercial · Scenarios
What-if analysis — Q3 2026
Deterministic sensitivity comparison. Pick any scenario to save as a proposal for revenue committee.
Baseline gross
€1.84m
ADR €286 · occ 52.96%
Owner pool
€1.01m
70% of net
Best scenario gross
€1.92m
Peak ADR uplift
Worst scenario gross
€1.71m
Aggressive owner-use
Scenario matrix
| Scenario | Gross | Δ Gross | Occupancy | ADR | Owner pool | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | €1.84m | — | 52.96% | €286 | €1.01m | Plan of record |
| Peak ADR uplift | €1.92m | +4.6% | 51.76% | €299 | €1.05m | +12% ADR on 1BR|Sea & 2BR|Sea, peak-summer window |
| Aggressive owner-use | €1.71m | -6.8% | 47.16% | €287 | €940k | Simulate 25% of owners blocking peak nights |
| Channel mix shift | €1.87m | +1.8% | 52.56% | €292 | €1.03m | +8pt direct share, −8pt OTA |
Scenario narratives
Baseline
Plan of record
Current plan, no changes.
Peak ADR uplift
+12% ADR on 1BR|Sea & 2BR|Sea, peak-summer window
Raises top-line but ~1 pt occupancy erosion expected.
Aggressive owner-use
Simulate 25% of owners blocking peak nights
Owner pool drops; policy cap (21 nt/Q) insufficient.
Channel mix shift
+8pt direct share, −8pt OTA
Net positive after OTA fees, ~€17k savings.